Key Points
- APEC Climate Center predicts a 62% chance of La Nina from December 2024 to February 2025.
- La Nina is expected to shift to neutral conditions between March and May 2025.
- The Niño3.4 index is forecasted to drop to -0.8°C in January 2025 and rise to -0.3°C by May 2025.
- Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology expects La Nina to start after February 2025.
- The US Climate Prediction Center predicts La Nina will last through January-March 2025.
- APEC forecasts above-normal global temperatures, except in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.
- India is expected to receive more rainfall than usual from December 2024 to May 2025.
- Less rainfall than usual is predicted in the western Indian Ocean and western equatorial Pacific.
Looma News
The APEC Climate Center (APCC) has forecasted a 62% chance of La Nina conditions continuing from December 2024 to February 2025. This climate pattern is expected to shift to neutral conditions by March-May 2025. According to the latest update, the Niño3.4 index, which helps track La Nina, is predicted to reach -0.8°C in January 2025, before gradually rising to -0.3°C by May 2025.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) agrees with this outlook, predicting that La Nina is unlikely to develop before February 2025. Meanwhile, the US Climate Prediction Center expects La Nina to start between October and December 2024 and continue through January-March 2025, with a 57% chance of happening. These forecasts suggest that La Nina could last into early 2025.
On a global scale, the APCC predicts above-normal temperatures across most of the world from December 2024 to May 2025, except for the central and eastern tropical Pacific. The center also expects more rainfall in India during this period. However, it predicts less rainfall than usual in the western Indian Ocean and western equatorial Pacific. Additionally, temperatures in the Indian Ocean (except the southern part) and Southeast Asia (excluding the Indochinese Peninsula) are expected to be higher than usual.
